On Jun. 29, 2020, the University of Oxford reported that potential COVID-19 hotspots can be identified using a new online tool from its Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science. It acts by highlighting which regions have the most at-risk factors and can supplement test-and-trace technology in highlighting potential future infection spikes.

By combining key data of known COVID-19 vulnerabilities such as age, social deprivation, population density, ethnicity and hospital resources, the tool can show potential risks, to a granular local level, allowing policymakers to target resources effectively.

The tool can highlight vulnerable areas. It showed Harrow in London as a local area with an exceptionally high age-related risk of hospitalisations due to COVID-19. And this proved the case in practice with The Northwick Park Hospital in Harrow the first to call for a national emergency, due to a lack of capacity early on in the pandemic emergency.

The tool can highlight vulnerable areas. It showed Harrow in London as a local area with an exceptionally high age-related risk of hospitalisations due to COVID-19. And this proved the case. As this pandemic continues to unfold across the world, we urgently need to consider how emerging socio-demographic risks such as social deprivation, ethnicity and population density structure spatial differences in COVID-19 severity and health care demand

Combining age, social deprivation, population density, and ethnic composition of multiple layers of data with hospital capacity, the researchers have produced online maps to identify the most at risk areas in England and Wales, which can be viewed at levels of the Administrative Region, Ceremonial County (CC), Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA). Their research has shown areas such as the Isle of Wight and Lincolnshire to have some of the highest risk factors. These areas not only have older populations, but also higher levels of social deprivation.