On Oct. 10, 1918, Cincinnati Health Officer Peters estimated that there were between 4,000 and 4,500 influenza cases in the city. He also claimed that the epidemic had been checked, but added that he and other city officials would remain vigilant in their battle against influenza until it was stamped out completely.

Two days later, Peters was supremely confident that “the spread of the disease had been checked definitely,” and that the closure order had “saved hundreds of lives in Cincinnati” in the few days it had been in place. He warned residents to remain vigilant so that influenza could be completely stamped out, telling them that if they did so the epidemic would be over within ten days.

By October 14, however, Health Officer Peters was no longer feeling so optimistic. Case and fatality reports from the previous day showed the highest death rate since the start of the epidemic.