On Oct. 2, 2024, a study from the GBD Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators reported that by accelerating the decline in tobacco smoking globally from current levels to 5% everywhere, could increase life expectancy and prevent millions of premature deaths.

The analysis used the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios and life expectancy at birth until 2050. Years of life lost (YLLs) were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario.

Smoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The study concluded that existing tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination.